Thrones of Flow

(Part of US-Israel-Iran Conflict Series)

Chokepoint Predators, Stakeholder Gravity, and the Fall of False Gods

Civilizations often believe their dominant systems are permanent.

The resource powering transport, industry, or trade begins to look inevitable. Economies organize around it. Infrastructure expands to support it. Entire political structures grow dependent on it.

At that point the system appears unshakeable.

Yet most of these thrones rest on something fragile: control of flows.

Chokepoint Predators

Where movement concentrates, power concentrates.

This pattern appears repeatedly in nature. At river crossings in Africa, crocodiles wait where migrating herds must pass. The herd’s movement is not random; geography compresses it into narrow channels. Not all constraints are imposed by actors. Some arise from environment—currents, winds, terrain—which shape movement without controlling it.

Predators exploit that compression.

The same pattern appears in human systems.

Trade routes pass through straits, canals, ports, and mountain passes. Whoever controls these chokepoints gains influence far beyond their geographic size.

Examples appear throughout history:

• pirates operating along maritime trade routes

• bandits controlling caravan crossings

• naval powers guarding straits

• states taxing canal traffic.

The underlying mechanism is simple.

flow concentration

→ chokepoint formation

→ predator advantage

Control the choke point, and you control the flow.

A crocodile takes from the crossing. A hippo makes the crossing uncertain.

A state does both—and calls it policy.

Disciplines: ecology, logistics systems, maritime history

Stakeholder Gravity

Once a flow becomes economically central, stakeholders gather around it.

Industries emerge to support the system. Workers depend on it. Governments collect taxes from it. Investors fund infrastructure tied to it.

Over time the system develops gravitational pull.

Oil illustrates this clearly.

Modern transportation networks rely heavily on petroleum fuels. That dependency produces layers of stakeholders:

• oil producers

• refinery operators

• transport industries

• financial institutions

• national governments.

Together they form a powerful ecosystem.

resource → infrastructure → stakeholder networks → political protection

The system begins defending itself.

This is stakeholder gravity: the tendency of established systems to resist change because too many actors depend on them.

The larger the ecosystem becomes, the harder it is to displace.

Disciplines: political economy, institutional economics

False Gods

When chokepoints and stakeholder gravity combine, a resource or technology can achieve extraordinary influence.

At its peak, the system begins to look eternal.

Horses once powered mobility across continents. Coal fueled industrial expansion. Oil drives modern logistics and manufacturing.

These systems dominate because they control critical flows of energy or movement.

But their dominance is conditional.

False gods rule only while the system that sustains them remains intact.

The moment new technologies change the structure of flows, the throne begins to crack.

Horses lost their dominance when engines replaced muscle power. Coal lost primacy when oil and electricity expanded. Even today, alternatives gradually pressure petroleum’s monopoly over transport.

False gods rarely disappear immediately.

Instead, they retreat slowly as new systems grow around them.

Dominance is powerful, but it is temporary.

Disciplines: economic history, energy transitions

Technology Transitions

Technological shifts often begin quietly.

New systems appear first in small niches:

• experimental markets

• specialized uses

• marginal industries.

At this stage they pose little threat.

But technological systems follow a common pattern.

Costs fall with scale. Infrastructure expands. Adoption spreads.

Eventually the new technology becomes competitive with the old one.

When that moment arrives, the incumbent system faces pressure from two directions:

• declining economic advantage

• rising alternatives.

Yet transitions rarely happen instantly.

Stakeholder gravity slows them.

Existing industries lobby regulators. Infrastructure investments demand long lifetimes. Workers and governments resist rapid change.

So the old system persists even after its weaknesses become visible.

Only gradually does the throne weaken enough for the new system to expand. 

Disciplines: innovation economics, industrial systems

Conclusion

Civilizations repeatedly mistake dominance for permanence.

Control of chokepoints creates powerful systems. Stakeholders reinforce them. For a time, the system appears invincible.

But dominance built on flows lasts only as long as the underlying structure remains unchanged.

Once technology reshapes those flows, the throne cracks.

False gods rule eras.

They rarely rule centuries.